Goldman Sachs On Oil

Keep 2026Q4 Brent $90 forecast as the easing effect from a smaller-than-expected deficit During the Hormuz disruption so far offsets the tightening effect from a longer disruption Assume that oil exports from Gulf producers normalize by late August (vs. by late June prior) Normalization may be achieved with a rise in Hormuz flows to 70% of pre-war levels given current redirections. Lower 2027 average Brent forecast by $5 to $80 on higher supply and lower demand. OECD commercial oil stocks are unlikely to reach very high levels following sharp 2026 draws Security premium compensating for disruption risk is likely to keep a floor under prices.

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