JPM on Jubilant Foodworks

Neutral TP Rs 475 Management meet takeaways, CEO expressed confidence in JUBI's structural ability to deliver 5–7% LFL growth over the medium term, underpinned by execution superiority (8-region operating model, sub-20-minute delivery, and an accelerated pace of innovation) and significant runway for store expansion (5,000 store potential for Domino's India). FY27 SSSG is expected to be more pricing-indexed (vs vol), reflecting the inflationary backdrop, with management deploying a nuanced, AI-driven pricing approach spanning absolute product pricing, discount modulation, and non-food charges. While near-term margin headwinds of 200bps (cumulative) from fuel, wage hikes, and commodity inflation are acknowledged, the medium-term 200bps standalone EBITDA margin expansion target remains intact — supported by new business drag reduction (Dunkin' to be discontinued), the Popeyes scale-up, and structural cost efficiencies driven by AI and supply chain optimization. Over medium term, JUBI is aspiring for standalone revenue growth of 15% (Popeyes: ~1.5%) along with a ~15% pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin.

JUBILANT FOODWORKS LTD

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